80% of Samsung's 2027 memory is already sold - RAM prices are about to spike

Remember when the memory shortage was supposed to ease by 2027? Samsung is essentially saying: not so fast. The Korean giant has already sold 80% of its 2027 memory output through long-term agreements, according to Korean investment firm KB Securities, as reported by Yonhap. That leaves hyperscalers fighting over the remaining 20% of supply, and consumer RAM is about to get more expensive. KB Securities expects double-digit quarter-over-quarter price increases on the consumer side after the new year.

The picture gets tighter the closer you look. Samsung's commodity memory output - the DRAM and NAND inside your PC, laptop, and phone - is roughly 70% covered by five-year contracts, per KB Securities. High Bandwidth Memory, the specialized chips powering AI accelerators and data center graphics cards, is 100% booked under yearly agreements. The investment firm predicts HBM's average selling price will jump 100-150% year-over-year. That pricing pressure doesn't stay contained in data centers; it spills directly into the consumer market.

It also sets up an earnings windfall for Samsung. KB Securities projects the company's operating profit will grow 57% year-over-year in 2027, reaching 555 trillion Korean won (a figure the report places at just over $4 billion). That forecast holds even after last week's AI and semiconductor sell-off, which cut Samsung's share price by 19%. In the firm's words: "We believe the sell-off is attributable to weaker sentiment [regarding AI investments more broadly] and valuation adjustments amid macro uncertainties, rather than any deterioration in the company's earnings fundamentals."

The firm doubles down: "Macro variables may boost near-term volatility, but are unlikely to affect the direction of earnings growth, given the output reserved by LTAs and rising prices. In short, we believe earnings growth in 2027 is virtually assured." That conviction is essentially a bet that hyperscalers' AI data-center buildout continues unabated. If they are still signing five-year contracts for Samsung memory, they must expect demand to surge through the end of the decade.

For consumers, the takeaway is blunt: if you've been waiting for RAM prices to fall, keep waiting. The initial report advises against panic buying, but also notes prices look set to worsen in the near term. For businesses that buy hardware at scale, this changes the math. Procurement teams should expect longer lead times and harder negotiations. The old pattern of waiting for the next memory downcycle may not return before 2027 at the earliest.

The bigger strategic picture: memory is now a seller's market with a moat. Samsung's long-term contracts lock in revenue and shift risk to buyers. Rivals SK Hynix and Micron will likely follow the same playbook, and hyperscalers are being forced into early commitments just to guarantee supply. For other industries - from automakers to electronics manufacturers - that means memory costs become stickier and less responsive to short-term demand shifts.

The wildcard is whether AI demand actually materializes at the scale these contracts assume. Some big tech CEOs have argued "it's impossible for the shortage to last until 2030," suggesting they see a rebalancing ahead. But even if that is right, it doesn't help today. The market must get through 2027 first. And with 80% of Samsung's output already spoken for, the price pressure is baked in.