Mena construction CPMI slips 12% in April 2026, but execution momentum rebounds to 1.01

If you only looked at April’s headline number for Mena, you might assume the Israel-Iran conflict is wrecking the region’s construction pipeline. It is not, at least not yet. GlobalData’s Construction Projects Momentum Index (CPMI) for Mena landed at 0.86 in April 2026, down 12% from 0.98 in March, but execution-stage momentum rebounded to 1.01. That split matters because execution is the “projects under pressure now” view, while pre-execution is where investor caution shows up first.

April’s CPMI also puts Mena third globally, behind North-east Asia and South Asia, with a three-month moving average that eased to 0.96 from 0.97. The index’s modest slide, rather than a free-fall, is the core story: momentum has nudged lower since early-year highs, but the market is absorbing the geopolitical shock without a sustained deterioration that the severity of disruption might suggest. In plain English, the conflict has changed behavior and timing, but it has not turned the region into a stalled construction ecosystem.

So what’s propping things up? The resilience is partly about who is still moving. In April, the UAE led Mena with a CPMI of 1.20, easing only slightly from 1.30 in March. Saudi Arabia also remained solid at 0.94. When an index is made of many markets, the countries with stronger underlying momentum can soften the blow from more directly exposed locations. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, as the region’s largest markets, effectively act like shock absorbers.

Saudi Arabia’s continued momentum also connects to how the market is structured. The CPMI commentary highlights that Saudi Arabia’s water PPP market has grown into one of the most structured and well-governed sectors for global developers, supported by institutional reforms, legal frameworks, and digital tools that reduce barriers to market entry. That matters because conflict typically amplifies friction. If regulation and contracting systems are clearer, projects can keep progressing even when risk premiums rise elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the conflict’s impact is most visible at the country level, and the index shows a sharp divergence. Israel recorded the lowest CPMI score in the region in April at -3.26, reflecting substantial delays to major projects. One of the casualties cited is the East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline, with its Final Investment Decision pushed well beyond its original timeline. Iran, also a direct participant in the conflict, registered 0.53 in April, a stark reversal from its January strength when it posted 1.31. These swings are a reminder that exposure changes everything: timelines slip, investment decisions get postponed, and execution pipelines can get disrupted when projects face elevated risk.

To understand why April does not look worse, it helps to track the index’s own timeline. The conflict’s first major imprint on the CPMI appeared in March, when execution-stage momentum in Mena dipped from 1.06 in February to 0.89 in March. Pre-execution activity fell too, from 1.02 to 0.95. Infrastructure, which had been a strong performer earlier in the year, dropped sharply to 0.53 in March from 1.06 in February. Institutional sector activity also pulled back, from 1.27 to 0.78. The source ties these moves to the typical disruption channels conflict creates in construction: cost inflation linked to energy price volatility, supply chain disruption, and elevated risk premiums that delay investment decisions.

By April, some pressures started easing, but not evenly. Execution momentum recovered to 1.01, reversing the March dip. Infrastructure returned as the top-performing sector with a CPMI of 1.13, and commercial and leisure activity remained solid at 0.94, building on gains sustained throughout the conflict period. But pre-execution momentum continued to soften, dropping to 0.86 in April from 0.95 in March. That is the crucial second-order signal. Pre-execution covers project planning, design development, and procurement preparation, which is exactly where investor caution and risk reassessment show up first. If that segment keeps declining, the future pipeline can thin even if near-term execution appears to hold up.

The source gives a concrete country-level example of how supply chain and procurement disruption can swing a market. In January, Kuwait recorded a CPMI of 0.27, depressed by delays to tender packages on Kuwait Oil Company developments, including SGC1, SGC II, SGC III, and JLO Export Facility projects. Kuwait recovered strongly to 1.43 in February and 0.90 in March, then fell again to 0.55 in April, with delays reported on Dorra Field developments. That oscillation is basically the construction equivalent of stop-and-go traffic caused by upstream uncertainty, particularly when projects have complex procurement requirements.

Looking broader, Mena entered 2026 with momentum, ranking first globally in January with a CPMI of 1.05, a 16% jump from December 2025’s 0.90. In that January snapshot, momentum was broad-based across infrastructure, residential, and institutional sectors, with Qatar, the UAE, and Iran all posting scores above 1.20. Because the conflict began when the pipeline was strong, the data suggest that accumulated momentum provided a buffer to absorb the initial shock. Whether it lasts through the remainder of 2026 depends on how the conflict develops, and particularly whether the cautious behavior visible in pre-execution activity turns into deferrals of new project launches. For executives, boards, and investors, the decision problem is straightforward: execution can bounce, but pre-execution trends decide what you will be able to execute later.